2 Negatives Don’t Make a Positive When It Comes to Rivian and Volkswagen

Workers build Rivian R2 SUVs at the manufacturer’s assembly plant on May 19, 2026 in Normal, Illinois. Coming into Thursday trading, shares were down year to date, despite rising EV sales, due in part to the company’s new R2 vehicles. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Volkswagen provided a $1 billion 10-year loan facility to Rivian, but shares of both companies fell in early trading.
• Rivian is expected to burn through about $9 billion in cash from 2026 through 2028 before free cash flow turns positive in 2029.
• U.S. EV sales dropped 24% in the first half of the year following the September 2025 expiration of a federal tax credit.

Rivian just got a $1 billion 10-year loan facility from Volkswagen , providing needed capital to the EV startup. Rivian stock, however, is down. So are Volkswagen shares.

The natural question for investors is: What gives?

Rivian stock fell 1.6% in early trading to $14.10, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Volkswagen stock was off 4.3% in overseas trading.

The drop for Rivian came despite rising crude oil prices, which can sometimes help EV makers. Higher gas prices can encourage buyers to consider EVs.

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That’s two potential positives that failed to lift Rivian shares early on Thursday.

To be sure, Volkswagen and Rivian have been partners for a while. Volkswagen owns Rivian equity, and the pair have formed a 50/50 joint venture that combines hardware and software development for next-generation vehicles. So the loan is part of their existing business collaboration.

Still, investors typically react well to EV startups receiving cash. Rivian is expected to burn through about $9 billion in cash from 2026 through 2028 before free cash flow turns positive in 2029, when sales are expected to top 300,000 vehicles. Rivian is expected to sell about 67,000 vehicles in 2026.

Rivian ended the second quarter with about $14 billion in total liquidity.

U.S. investors, however, have become disillusioned with EV growth following the expiration of the federal $7,500 EV purchase tax credit in September 2025. In the first half of the year, U.S. EV sales dropped 24%, following a 36% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Falling sales have weighed on sentiment toward EV startups. Through early trading, Rivian stock was down 29% year to date. Lucid stock was off 64%. Polestar shares were down 75%.

As for Volkswagen, higher oil prices can be a problem for traditional auto makers, weighing on demand for new cars as consumer pocketbooks feel increased pressure. Its shares were also down 36% year to date through early trading, as Chinese imports put pressure on European auto maker profits.

Volkswagen is expected to generate a 2026 operating profit of about $16 billion. At the start of the year, that estimate was closer to $21 billion.

While capital, collaboration, and computer-controlled vehicles are all important, Rivian and Volkswagen have bigger issues to contend with.

At least, that’s what the stock prices say.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com.

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