Nvidia Stock Drops. A Big Options Trade Signals Where It Might Go Next.

Nvidia is the dominant provider of artificial-intelligence chips. (Annabelle Chih/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Nvidia shares slipped after setting a series of new closing highs earlier in the week.
• A trader bought at least 35,000 Nvidia call options with a $240 strike price expiring on Oct. 23, Susquehanna analysts said.
• The options period covers Nvidia’s GTC event in Berlin on Oct. 20-22 and multiple reports by chip companies.

Nvidia stock has lost some momentum since breaking through to a record this week. But at least one trader seems to think that events this month will drive the chip maker’s stock higher again.

Nvidia shares were down 0.9% at $235.30 in premarket trading. The stock set a series of new closing highs this week, peaking at $239.24 on Tuesday but higher bond yields have weighed on the semiconductor sector in the last couple of days.

Nvidia wasn’t getting much of a boost from the latest bumper sales report by its key supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing or Nvidia’s announcement with Microsoft on Wednesday of new personal computers designed for artificial-intelligence computing.

Still, there looks to be optimism in the market. Susquehanna analysts flagged in a research note Wednesday that one trader has bought at least 35,000 Nvidia call options with a strike price of $240, expiring on Oct. 23. As each contract controls 100 shares of stock, that’s an option for at least 3.5 million shares.

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A call option gives investors the right to buy a stock at a certain price and time—in this case $240 by Oct. 23. As buying the calls costs a premium of around $7.25 a share, Nvidia stock must trade above $247.25 at the time of the expiration of the option for the trade to be profitable.

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Jacobson notes the options period covers Nvidia’s GTC event in Berlin on Oct. 20-22, as well as multiple reports by chip companies.

“While it’s impossible to know whether the event will serve as a catalyst for the shares or not, we note that the stock did rally to hit a new (at the time) high last October around its GTC Washington, D.C. event, where there were multiple announcements made,” Jacobson wrote.

Of course, buying options based on a single potential date is a high-risk move.

“Rather than focusing on any specific catalyst or event, yesterday’s call buyer may simply have been looking to take advantage of the volatility to express a bullish near-term view. We continue to like Nvidia options for directional exposure,” Jacobson wrote.

Nvidia was a Barron’s stock pick in May when it was trading at around $226. We wrote at the time that the stock could hit $300 over the following 12 months.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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