The Red Tide Goes Out—With a Blue Splashback

As Donald Trump’s support collapses, Republican candidates are whipsawed between distancing themselves from their albatross president and keeping faith with the MAGA hard core. As this straddle becomes all but impossible, Senate seats once considered safely Republican are now in play. Trump adds to the fun by keeping himself highly visible.

At this writing, the polls suggest that Democrats have a better than even chance of picking up Republican Senate seats in North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, and a decent shot at Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska (where an independent is running against the Republican). And there are once unthinkable long shots such as Florida and South Carolina as well.

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In the House, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee just added six races to their “Red to Blue” program that Trump won by an average of over 16 points, including seats in gerrymandered Florida and Tennessee and one in crimson Arkansas. From the Blue Ridge Mountains in North Carolina to rural East Central Texas, Democrats are contesting in places they had long forgotten, leaving Trump to kick off campaign season in—get this—Alabama and Oklahoma.

Bottom line: In what is clearly a wave election, my educated guess is that the Democrats will sweep the House and capture the Senate by one or two. Of course, there is still a month to go, and with contradictory court decisions on control of voter rolls, we don’t know how many votes Trump and his allies will manage to steal.

But as Republicans crash and burn in red states, some Democrats are in trouble in blue or purple ones. Why?

To some extent, the explanation is idiosyncratic.

In Maine’s Senate race, Troy Jackson, an authentic working-class Mainer, has trouble putting words together. As I wrote in this piece, Chuck Schumer sent in the B-team of out-of-state consultants to run Jackson’s campaign. They made things worse. Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins’s TV ads are running rings around Jackson’s, and she has vastly more money. The other day, Heather Cox Richardson did an extended live conversation with Jackson, lobbing softball after softball, and it was painfully clear that she was carrying him.

In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas, a four-term congressman, is running against John E. Sununu for the seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. In the Granite State, Sununu is a brand. The current Sununu previously served one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009. His brother Chris Sununu was New Hampshire’s governor from 2017 to 2025, leaving office with an approval rating of 60 percent. And their father, John H. Sununu, was governor in the 1980s.

Some voters are not even sure which Sununu is running. The candidate’s lawn signs reinforce this deliberate confusion. They simply read, “Sununu/Senator.”

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Minnesota, where the contested Senate seat is currently held by retiring Sen. Tina Smith, should not be on this list at all. It has trended solidly blue in recent years. But Republican Michele Tafoya, a popular sports commentator, is running almost even with Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the current lieutenant governor. A voter backlash against a welfare fraud scandal, reinforcing Gov. Tim Walz’s increasing unpopularity, has rubbed off onto Flanagan.

One common factor that helps explain both the Republican cratering and the occasional Democratic softness is an anti-incumbent tide. The dismal economy contributes mightily to a voter psychology of “throw the rascals out.” The big rascal, and scores of little rascals, are Republicans; but a few are Democrats.

The sudden peril facing Republican governors and candidates for governor confirms this pattern. In Texas, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott is now running at or behind Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Texans know Abbott all too well. He is in his 11th year as governor and before that was attorney general for 12 years.

In Iowa, state auditor Rob Sand, a populist Democrat, has a wide lead over Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn in the race to succeed Kim Reynolds, a conservative Republican who has been governor for nine years. And in Ohio, which has had only Republican governors for 20 years, Democrat Amy Acton, former state health director, is well ahead of Republican billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy.

In Florida, which has had a bellyful of Ron DeSantis, Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds suddenly faces a close race. Florida last had a Democratic governor in 1999, though Democrat Andrew Gillum came within a whisker of winning in the Democratic wave year of 2018.

Conversely, confirming the anti-incumbent pattern, in Kansas where the incumbent, Democrat Laura Kelly, is retiring, Republican candidate Ty Masterson, the state Senate president, is running ahead of Democrat Cindy Holscher.

In Oregon, which hasn’t elected a Republican governor in 40 years, Republican Christine Drazan has a decent shot at ousting Democratic incumbent Tina Kotek.

For the most part, however, it adds up to a very good year for Democrats and a bad year for the incumbent party, especially where that party is Republican.

The post appeared first on The American Prospect.