Investing - Theory, News & General • Oct 2, 2026

I read in the NYT this morning that Treasury yields had fallen as a result of a weak jobs report. When I got online, I saw that they had recovered, and I still see that now:



Since the 10Y nominal is the key yield that tends to be the focus of the news headlines, I drew arrows on that chart that show the initial drop and the recovery relative to the close yesterday.

The TIPS yields are trending higher, but still not up to the peak of almost 3.4% for the 30Y yesterday. I like to look at the 10 day view for a bit more perspective:



I've drawn some trend lines for the 10Y and 30Y TIPS.

And for the folks who point out that we could see even higher yields, here's the maximum range provided by the data source:



So although TIPS yields are at levels we haven't seen in more than two decades, they were higher for the first few years after TIPS were first issued with the 10Y in Jan 1997, and the first 30Y in Apr 1998.

And FRED provides a 10-year real interest rate series back to 1982:

Statistics: Posted by Kevin M — Fri Oct 02, 2026 2:15 pm