Markets Need the Jobs Report to Point to a Fed Hold

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Good morning. It’s almost the weekend, but just a small matter of today’s September jobs report to get through first. It’s a key data point ahead of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting later this month.

The Barron’s Daily

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The numbers are expected to show another decent month of job growth and stable unemployment. For more details and updates, check out our analysis and live coverage here.

No surprise there’s market excitement ahead of the release. Stock futures look set to open higher as traders hope the data will support the Fed leaving rates unchanged. The CME FedWatch tool points to traders pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will leave rates as is. The odds have shifted pretty dramatically this week toward a hold—not a hike.

Nike is one of the biggest fallers in the premarket after disappointing earnings. Its turnaround still has a way to go. Chip supplier On Semiconductor made a $5.7 billion bid to buy Synaptics, and both stocks are enjoying outsized stock jumps. There are details of a bunch more movers here.

We’ll be back Monday after a bit of rest and relaxation. Have a great day.

P.S. Feel free to get in touch with any thoughts and comments.

You can subscribe to the Barron’s Daily newsletter here.

📈 Here’s what’s happening in markets today:

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Source: FactSetNote: Futures contractsAs of Oct. 2, 9 a.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Nasdaq 100Dow Jones IndustrialS&P 500 Oct. 1Oct. 2-0.2500.250.500.751.001.251.50%

🎢 Why veteran Wall Street strategists see volatility ahead

Veteran Wall Street strategists are picking up on some unusual developments as bond markets sell off and mortgage rates spike. Some, like BCA Research’s Arthur Budaghyan, note there is relatively little volatility in the equity and currency markets despite the surge in bond volatility, and say it can’t be sustained. Read more here.

👟 Nike’s full-year forecast lands on a down note

Nike offered a downbeat full-year forecast, expecting earnings of $1.15 to $1.35 a share and a drop in revenue in the high-single-digit range. It has a turnaround effort aimed at $2.5 billion in cumulative savings. Sales of athletic shoes and gear have been difficult lately, but Nike in particular has suffered. Read about its earnings here.

🪀 Mattel has best day since March on takeover report

Mattel stock had its best day since March, and just one day after word its CEO was leaving, on a report by The Wall Street Journal that Authentic Brands had approached the toy maker with a takeover offer that would value it at around $20 a share. Read more about it here.

💼 Accenture brushes off concerns about AI disruption

Rising new bookings helped Accenture brush off mounting concerns that artificial intelligence would disrupt consulting firms. The firm’s latest earnings signal a turnaround after several quarters of revenue stagnation, softer consulting bookings, and persistent fears that AI would dampen traditional IT consulting spending.

💸 Another Fed official sees AI buildout as inflation risk

Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook says the AI buildout poses a major inflation risk for 2027, joining several other Fed officials citing AI as a potential longer-term problem for the Fed to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Increased demand has already boosted the price of chips and electrical components, plus materials used to build out data centers.

🤖 Anthropic IPO could come before Thanksgiving: report

In case there was still any doubt about Anthropic’s plan to plow ahead with its mega-initial public offering, a Bloomberg report offers the firmest timeline yet for when the party is getting started. Formal marketing could start as soon as the week of Nov. 9. Read more here.

📰 Don’t miss out on our other newsletters

Review & Preview: Jobs Watch
Global Signals: The Most Promising Markets for Meta’s Muse Are Also the Hardest to Monetize
Barron’s Tech: In AI Race, Software Is Now Willing Alongside Chips

🚗 Tesla’s new Roadster might literally fly. Wait and see.

Tesla postponed its Roadster reveal until Oct. 15, citing severe weather conditions on the original day of the event. That move set off speculation about why the event needed to be outdoors at all. Investors still don’t know exactly what they will see. The new Roadster might literally fly.

💬 Quote of the day:

There are supply chain bottlenecks everywhere. — Lisa Cook, Federal Reserve governor, on AI’s effects on the economy

Other headlines moving markets:

The next crypto boom is already here.
AI agents got cash to trade stocks. Here’s what they did.
Quantum is having a moment. What to know.
Micron’s stock is cheap. Why investors are still gun-shy.
Trump wants control of the Fed. His Powell obsession may prevent it.
This energy infrastructure company got a data center deal.
Why IBM’s stock is getting a much needed boost from Accenture earnings.
Auditors fail in court challenge to SEC oversight board.
Corteva’s stock isn’t really down 80%.
Tesla delivery results are coming. What to expect.
Why active ETFs belong in model portfolios.
Fed officials say inflation should take priority with labor stable.
The global bond rout continues.
How Lilly just extended its lead in weight-loss drug race.
Why Synopsys stock topped the Nasdaq 100.
Google prevails in two antitrust suits.

— Edited by Liz Moyer and Mel Gray

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