Sanchez Triggers Speculation of Another Early Spanish Election

Spain could be headed to an early general election before the end of the year if, as expected, the government suffers a defeat in Parliament on Friday.

“The moment of truth has arrived,” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wrote in a post on X late Thursday, referring to two bills that will be put to vote in Parliament Friday. The measures were approved by the government as decrees on Tuesday and need to be ratified by lawmakers but are expected to be rejected.

Sánchez could react to a loss by calling early elections, with a person familiar with his thinking saying such a move is highly likely and Eldiario.es reporting that a Nov. 29 ballot is in focus. Legally, he has until July 2027 to call the election.

The Socialist leader has already called early elections twice since he became premier in 2018. He also had to face an election in late 2019 when no candidate managed to get enough support to form a government. He has never completed a term.

Sánchez has spent his eight years in power navigating a succession of crises. His current four-year term started in 2023 and has been particularly complicated.

He’s failed to present a single budget, corruption cases involving his party or family have multiplied, and the illegal arrival of about 80,000 migrants this summer in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in North Africa fueled a new wave of social discontent.

The eviction last week of an 87-year-old woman with a disability opened another front for Sánchez, with thousands of people taking to the streets and protesters setting up camp in central Madrid.

In less than a week, and under intense public pressure, the government attempted to rebuild its parliamentary majority to advance housing measures that had previously seemed out of reach, even resuming negotiations with Junts, a conservative Catalan party with which political talks had broken down in recent months.

Junts’ decision to oppose the measures, announced late Thursday night, makes their approval impossible, but could give Sánchez a less damaging narrative heading into an election, the people said. Housing, considered the top concern among Spaniards, is a particularly sensitive issue for the left and could help mobilize its voters.

Spain’s last general election, in 2023, was also called early. Back then, Sánchez used a defeat in local and regional elections to mobilize his supporters against the prospect of the conservative People’s Party and the far-right Vox taking power. Defying expectations, the right failed to secure enough seats in Parliament, allowing Sánchez to form a government through complex agreements with more than eight parties.

The prime minister’s Socialist party is currently trailing in polls.