The Two Catalysts Helping Nvidia Nail a Fresh Stock Milestone

Nvidia stock has risen 22% this year so far coming into Thursday’s session. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Nvidia shares rose but remain below the company’s all-time closing high of $235.74.
• Investors are watching Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, which is expected in mid-to-late November.
• The expected initial public offering of Anthropic in November could provide insight into spending on Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence chips.

Nvidia stock is straining to break out to new highs. The fourth quarter should bring several catalysts that can help the chip maker get there.

Nvidia shares were up 0.8% in premarket trading at $230.19. Despite a 17% gain in the third quarter coming into Thursday’s session, they remained stubbornly below its all-time closing high of $235.74, reached on May 14.

Shareholders should be watching a couple of potential factors in the coming months. Obviously there’s Nvidia’s own earnings, expected in mid-to-late November. In its previous report, the company surprised the market with an upbeat forecast for revenue to grow by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. Progress on that goal and maintaining its sky-high margins will be key.

Arguably more important is the expected initial public offering of Claude-developer Anthropic, which is currently scheduled for November, according to The Wall Street Journal.

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A successful IPO would calm nerves around the sustainability of AI spending and give greater insight into how much money Anthropic and peers can spend on Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence chips. Nvidia agreed to invest up to $10 billion in Anthropic late last year, which CNBC reported at the time put Anthropic’s valuation at around $350 billion. Anthropic is widely expected to look for a valuation of around $2 trillion on the public market.

History is on Nvidia’s side—the last three months of the year have often been the stock’s best period, recording an average fourth-quarter gain of 22% in data going back to 1999, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Over the last five years, it has recorded an average fourth-quarter gain of 17%.

Nvidia was a Barron’s stock pick in May when shares traded around $226 with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 24 times. It now trades at a forward multiple of 16.8 times, according to FactSet.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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