A Tale of Two Toss-Ups

Rebecca Bennett, the Democratic candidate running against Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ) in New Jersey’s Seventh District, and Cait Conley, who is challenging Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in New York’s 17th District, are cut from the same cloth. The two challengers are combat veterans—they both are in a group chat nicknamed “Hellcats,” named after the female Marines who served in the First World War. Their platforms have centered on affordability, immigration reform, and remedying the worst of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. They have positioned themselves as moderate, Blue Dog Democrats who stand ready to deliver for American families.

In televised debates on Sunday and Monday night, Bennett and Conley made that pitch to voters. The candidates also capitalized on President Trump’s record-low approval rating, castigating their Republican opponents for continuing to align with the administration and its policy agenda.

The Cook Political Report had designated both House races as toss-ups, but it changed its outlook on the New Jersey race to “Lean Democratic” late last week. With the televised debates in the rearview, the reasons for that reclassification have become clear.

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Despite expressing his willingness to stand up to Trump on certain issues, Rep. Kean was hard-pressed to justify casting the deciding vote on the Big Beautiful Bill after Bennett lambasted him for supporting the deeply unpopular budget reconciliation package. The law, Bennett said, “is why tens of thousands of people in our district are losing access to their health insurance, and why all the rest of us are seeing our premiums go up.”

The debate Sunday was Kean’s first extended public engagement since his monthslong leave of absence from Congress, which he took between March and June while being treated for depression. Kean did not disclose that he was receiving mental health treatment until after returning to Congress. The moderators opened the debate by asking Kean about the lack of information regarding his absence. Kean emphasized that “we kept everybody updated” about his condition.

Before pointing out “our health care system and how broken it is,” Bennett said: “I’m glad that you got access to the care that you need. I wish you a continued, speedy recovery.”

Overall, Kean was on the defensive from the jump, and Bennett had no problem steering the conversation to her preferred topics. That was not true of the Conley-Lawler debate.

Conley offered familiar criticism of her opponent, observing that Lawler voted for the “Big Ugly Bill,” and arguing that he has voted with Trump “100 percent of time.”

Lawler said that claim is “demonstrably false,” and on multiple occasions touted his relationships with Democratic members of Congress, including Reps. Jared Golden (D-ME) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ).

“My best friend in Congress is Josh Gottheimer,” Lawler said. Golden, controversially, has endorsed Lawler for the seat.

Lawler and Gottheimer were among those who introduced the bipartisan Antisemitism Awareness Act in October 2023. The bill, which overwhelmingly passed the House and stalled in the Senate, requires the Department of Education to apply the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance working definition of antisemitism when enforcing federal antidiscrimination laws. (Kean also co-sponsored the bill.)

Lawler managed to kill two birds with one stone on Monday night. Even on issues they agreed on, such as U.S. aid to Israel and insider trading, he seemed to put Conley on the defensive. At one point, Lawler baselessly accused New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani of antisemitism and demanded that Conley denounce him.

“I denounce antisemitism from anyone,” Conley said. “I have firm disagreements with members of the [Democratic Socialists of America], within the Democratic Party; any form of hate has no place, period, full stop, and I absolutely call out my own party when I believe it’s wrong.”

Conley and Lawler even agreed with New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft’s decision to not allow rapper Macklemore to perform at Gillette Stadium.

Elsewhere, Conley did create distance from Lawler, but maybe not in the way she wanted. During a particularly contentious segment on AI, the candidates accused each other of being in the industry’s pocket. Lawler noted, as he has in advertising, that Conley has done consulting work for AI companies. The companies are also defense contractors seeking lucrative assignments from the Trump administration.

“Only one of us is receiving a paycheck [from] AI and Big Tech, and that’s thousands of dollars for a no-show job in which she can’t tell you what she does, except that she moved up here to run for Congress,” Lawler said. “She’ll move back to Virginia as quickly as she got here when she loses in November.” (Conley moved to New York’s 17th District from Virginia prior to launching her campaign.)

Conley claimed that five data centers have been built in the district “on Mike Lawler’s watch,” with three more “on the way.” She reiterated her support for a moratorium on data centers, and in her closing remarks, reminded viewers that Lawler is a former utility lobbyist.

“Mike Lawler is a party-first politician and lifelong political operative who has been bought and paid for by corporate interests, and the people of the Hudson Valley deserve better,” Conley said.

In his closing remarks, Lawler echoed the words of Ed Koch in an appeal to voters: “We’re not going to agree on everything, and that’s a good thing, but I have fought tirelessly to stand up and fight for this district and deliver for it.”

As of September 30, Republicans had an approximately $1.2 million spending advantage over Democrats in New York’s 17th District, and have spent roughly $675,000 more than Democrats in New Jersey’s Seventh District. Thirty-three days remain until the midterm elections.

The post appeared first on The American Prospect.