What History Says Will Happen If Micron’s Earnings Stars Align

The chip maker focused on memory—and a darling of the AI trade—is set to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. (JADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images)

Micron stock could be set to repeat history with a massive rally in the shares—that is, if the earnings stars align.

Micron stock was up 2.4% in early trading on Tuesday, following other chip names higher after a dip in the previous sessions which saw Micron shares shed 2.6% on Monday. The shares are up almost 550% over the last year as the company has become a major beneficiary of spending on chips to power growth in artificial intelligence.

The chip maker focused on memory—and a darling of the AI trade—is set to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday. The results have the possibility to shift sentiment for many stocks beyond Micron , depending on what the tea leaves say about the future of AI spending.

Micron stock has had some truly impressive post-earnings rallies in the last few years, but also some staggering falls—and it has been a bit of a coin toss.

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In the 11 quarters since the beginning of its 2024 fiscal year, Micron stock has risen five times in the day following earnings and fallen six times. Some of those moves have been extreme: the shares dropped 16.2% following the company’s first-quarter 2025 print, but the stock’s 15.7% jump after its last results in June were the best-ever post-earnings move.

Right now, Micron looks well-positioned from a technical point of view. The stock price—$1053.98 at Monday’s close—is sitting above all of its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages of $1000, $945, and $665, respectively. When a stock is above a short-term moving average level, and when shorter-term averages sit above longer term ones, it is a positive sign of momentum in the shares.

More fundamentally, analysts are upbeat ahead of Micron’s results. While big picture concerns remain around the sustainability of AI demand, chip pricing— an essential driver of Micron’s business —looks strong, analysts say.

“Pricing should be significantly better than Micron’s guidance assumes,” analysts at Wedbush wrote in a Monday note, reiterating their Outperform rating on the stock and $1400 price target. “While we are bumping up our estimates just above the high end of the company’s prior guidance, we believe memory price trends suggest room for further upside.”

“Expect another beat-and-raise on continued pricing momentum,” analysts at J.P. Morgan —which rates Micron at Overweight with a $1540 price target—wrote in a Monday note. “We see the setup as constructive with multiple beat-and-raise levers still in play against a memory backdrop that remains structurally tight.”

Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@barrons.com

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