Valuations for Most Robotics Startups Will Fall By 2030, Says Vinod Khosla

Vinod Khosla has been one of the most optimistic investors in robotics, predicting the field will have a “ChatGPT moment” in the next two years. But he is also warning that too much investment and lofty valuations in the hottest robotics startups mean a big shake-out is coming.

“I would say more than half will be below their current valuations by 2030,” he said in an interview, while adding that the ones that are not “will have huge multiples.”

Of course, it’s generally true that most venture capital bets don’t pan out, but Khosla’s comments are notable in light of similar warnings in China about its world-leading robotics industry. Last year, China’s economic planning agency warned that over 150 companies are working on creating humanoid robots, a number so great that it risks creating a bubble in the sector. Humanoid giant Unitree had a rocky debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange last month, prompting Chinese regulators to tighten approvals for humanoid startups seeking to go public, The Information reported.

Khosla Ventures, which the longtime tech executive and entrepreneur founded in 2004, has invested in robotics startups including Rhoda AI, which trains robotic foundation models, and Aim, which enables earthmoving machines to work autonomously. Khosla remains bullish that the ChatGPT-like inflection point he foresees for robots will create some big winners among humanoid companies. At that point, he predicts, humanoids capable of fine manipulation will take on new industrial tasks after learning from just an hour or two of data.

One big question: whose AI models will serve as the brain for those robots? Until recently, physical AI models from startups like Physical Intelligence and Skild were considered the favorites in that race, but the AI companies training language models have recently notched improvements at controlling robots. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, for example, worked better than some specialized robotics AI models when controlling robot arms in recent tests. One person even gave an Astra-powered robot a canvas and brushes and the model painted scenes of the Golden Gate bridge.

If a language model company is going to bring about the ChatGPT moment for robotics, Khosla’s money is on OpenAI itself—perhaps unsurprising, given his firm is one of OpenAI’s earliest investors. “I would put them in order as OpenAI, then maybe DeepMind, possibly Anthropic,” he said. “Meta is doing some specialized things in their home robotics effort.”

Anthropic is trailing the pack on Khosla’s list because “in robotics, Anthropic is barely getting started now. They were very late to try it. That‘s why I don’t think of them as likely candidates.”

One factor that could eventually slow robotics progress at the leading AI companies is their efforts to constrain the pace of model development. Such proposals have recently gained popularity among these companies as a means to buy time for work on AI safety, but these proposals so far have focused on the digital capabilities of AI models.

Robotics could enter the pacing conversation in the future if AI models are capable of powering military robots, Khosla said. At that point, “national security will be in play,” he said. Once robotics hits a ChatGPT moment, “I think this becomes a front-and-center issue.”

Robotics isn’t the only sector seeing sky-high valuations. There are “plenty of companies where I would like to be an investor, but decided to not do it strictly for valuation reasons. That's pretty common now,” Khosla said. “You know, this escalation of doing a round every month is crazy.”

Khosla said he keeps a list of companies that he declined to invest in because of their high valuations but whose business models he deemed sound.

On the other hand, some valuations appear high at first, but the business is so good that “the high valuation is worth it,” Khosla said. For example, Khosla first invested in AI coding startup Cognition three years ago. At the time, the valuation looked steep, but the company’s growth since then has made that investment “well worth it,” he said.

Here’s what else is going on…

Overheard

Anthropic is asking shareholders to approve a new corporate structure that would award CEO Dario Amodei and his six cofounders a special class of shares giving them collective voting control in most corporate matters, The Information reported on Thursday.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei was scheduled to have dinner with President Donald Trump at the White House on Sunday, Axios reported. The private dinner was the first meeting between Trump and Amodei, Axios reported, and could be a sign of warming relations between Anthropic and the White House.

OpenAI agents attempted to hack the Department of Education’s website but were not successful, according to researchers at AI nonprofit Transluce. An OpenAI spokesperson said the company was reviewing the incident, first reported by The New York Times. Separately, OpenAI agents posted 53 user images on the internet without the lab’s knowledge.

Meta Platforms is adding a clearer safety warning within Muse after a security researcher discovered a vulnerability in the AI agent that could let an attacker access a user’s sensitive personal information, The Information reported on Friday.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping said during his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump that the two nations can “jointly prevent the misuse and abuse of AI” through more cooperation. Trump and Xi held talks on Thursday at the White House, and a major topic on the agenda was AI safety and governance.

Merchants that sell on Amazon can now use Amazon’s software tools to manage their inventory at rival retailers, including Walmart, Shopify, eBay and TikTok, Amazon announced Thursday at its annual conference for sellers.

Oracle, which is set to lease a New Mexico data center on behalf of OpenAI, sent a notice to the project’s developer asserting its contractual rights to withhold payments if project delays persist, according to Bloomberg.

People on the Move

A key Figma executive whose departure helped send the stock down in August is joining the rapidly growing upstart Baseten, The Information reported on Friday. Sheila Vashee, who spent three years at the design software firm as chief marketing officer, left Figma this summer amid an executive shakeup.

Chris Malone, OpenAI’s former head of data centers, joined Nvidia as the vice president of Nvidia’s DSX Platform this month, according to his LinkedIn profile. DSX is the Nvidia division that helps customers design and build AI data centers according to Nvidia’s specifications.

Court Watch

A federal court ruled in favor of the Department of Defense in a lawsuit over the Department’s decision to label Anthropic a supply-chain risk earlier this year. The court’s majority opinion said Anthropic’s constitutional claims in its lawsuit against the Department of Defense were “without merit.”

New York has sued Polymarket for allegedly running an illegal gambling operation, expanding the state’s fight against prediction markets after earlier suing rival startup Kalshi and others.

Deals and Debuts

See The Information’s Generative AI Database for an exclusive list of private companies and their investors.

Anthropic committed to spending $11.6 billion over seven years on cloud services from Akamai, with Akamai issuing Anthropic a warrant for up to approximately 5% of its common stock. The deal can expand by another $9 billion, for a total potential commitment of about $20 billion; Akamai shares jumped roughly 20% in after-hours trading on the news.

Nscale, a British neocloud that rents out AI computing power, raised $3.36 billion in pre-IPO convertible financing led by Third Point, with participation from Nvidia (which will provide $1 billion of the total in November). The financing lands a week after Nscale’s IPO.

Crusoe, a neocloud, abandoned its $1.25 billion plan to use a new line of stationary power plants developed by Boom Supersonic.

Fal, an inference provider focusing on models for video and image generation, has spoken to investors about raising new funding at a $15 billion valuation or higher, The Information reported on Friday. Fireworks, another inference provider, is also considering a new funding round and could target a $30 billion valuation if it does.

Instinct, a popular AI assistant creator, raised $1 billion in funding at a $10 billion valuation led by Sequoia Capital, Benchmark Capital and Coatue. The Information first reported the round here and here.

Island, which makes an enterprise browser that governs AI agents, raised $400 million in a Series F funding round led by Evolution Equity Partners, at a $6.4 billion valuation. The valuation more than doubles Island's mark since 2024.

DensityAI, a chipmaker founded by former Tesla Dojo engineers, is in talks to raise hundreds of millions of dollars at a roughly $10 billion valuation, with Andreessen Horowitz leading the discussions, The Information reported.

TypeSafe, whose Jev model predicts numbers instead of generating text, is in talks to raise $1 billion or more at a valuation above $10 billion, The Information reported — just a week after the company announced a $40 million seed funding round at a $200 million valuation.

Precision Neuroscience, which builds brain implants that connect to computers, closed an oversubscribed $250 million Series D funding round led by Pershing Square Inc., the Ackman Oxman Institute and an undisclosed life sciences investment fund. The round values the company at just over $1 billion and brings its total funding to $430 million.

OpenEvidence, an AI search engine used by doctors, raised $250 million at a $15 billion valuation, up from the $12 billion valuation it reached in another $250 million round in January, led by hospital systems and Andreessen Horowitz, Business Insider reported. The Information first reported on the talks here.

BigHat Biosciences, which uses AI to design protein therapeutics, closed a $75 million Series C funding round led by DFJ Growth and Premji Invest, bringing its total funding to $223 million.

PicoJool, which makes optical chips for AI data centers, raised $27.5 million in a Series A funding round led by Socratic Partners, with participation from Hudson River Trading, bringing its total funding to $39.5 million.

The Biological Computing Company, which develops software to make AI models faster, cheaper and more efficient, raised $25 million in a seed extension led by Builders VC.

Ando, a messaging platform built for humans and AI agents to work together, raised $20 million in pre-seed and seed funding from Accel, Index Ventures, Emergence Capital and Contrary Capital.

Basalt Health, whose AI platform helps patients transition to post-acute care, raised $20 million in a Series A funding round.

Konnex, which lets robots hire each other and pay in stablecoins, raised $18.5 million in an early-stage venture funding round as it moves its purpose-built blockchain from public testnet to mainnet.

Trebellar, which uses AI for corporate real estate decisions, raised $18 million in a Series A funding round led by Blossom Capital.

Axya, an AI procurement platform for manufacturers, raised $17 million CAD (about $12 million) in a Series A funding round led by McRock Capital.

Statecraft, an AI-native federal technology startup, acquired Daybreak LLC, a McLean, Virginia-based applied AI and geospatial analytics firm that builds AI systems for federal agencies.

Databricks is acquiring Row Zero, a five-year-old Microsoft Excel competitor that sells spreadsheet software that’s designed for analyzing massive amounts of data. The deal could help Databricks attract more non-technical users to its business analyst chatbot Genie.

Microsoft on Friday launched a revamped version of its Copilot app that combines features that had previously been sold separately, including AI coding tools, features that automate tasks in Office 365, and an always-on “Autopilot” agent similar to Meta’s Muse.

Amazon said it will invest more than $100 million to build a 585,000-square-foot advanced manufacturing facility in Greenwood, Indiana, to produce equipment for its fulfillment and robotics network across North America. The facility is expected to launch by 2028.

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