Investing - Theory, News & General • Somewhat confused about disconnect between Vanguard forecasts and investment strategy?

Not too long ago Vanguard published some asset forecasts.

Vanguard's forecasts of asset class performance, as of June 30, 2026:

30-year annualized return forecasts

Asset class5th percentile25th percentile50th percentile75th percentile95th percentile
U.S. equities0.0%3.4%5.7%8.1%11.7%
U.S. aggregate bonds3.5%4.2%4.7%5.1%5.8%
U.S. Treasury bonds3.3%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.6%

So according to this, Vanguard forecasted U.S. bonds to have a better 25th percentile outcome than U.S. stocks over 30 years. Why then is it often mentioned for young investors to have very little bond exposure? I understand that equities still have a higher expected return, but 25th percentile is not all that far-fetched, and 30 years is long enough that it could be someone's entire career investing timeframe.

Statistics: Posted by urangthrew — Mon Sep 28, 2026 2:56 pm