Iran Officials Pessimistic About Deal With US Before Midterms

Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with Washington and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before US midterm elections in November, according to people familiar with the matter.

Iran and the US made little progress during talks in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week and the Islamic Republic believes there’s a high chance of the conflict escalating after the Nov. 3 vote, according to the people, some of whom were briefed by Iranian officials. They asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters.

Iran officials have consistently said they are willing to pursue diplomacy but do not trust the administration of US President Donald Trump to abide by the terms of any agreement. The White House has similar feelings of distrust toward Tehran and Trump has previously said he doubts any deal can be reached before the midterms.

Still, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff last week, has remained in the US for more discussions that will be conducted via mediators for the warring sides, one person said.

Talks involving Araghchi will take place Monday morning local time to review recent proposals and exchange views on the current situation, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported. No US representative will attend the meeting, it said.

The main mediators are seeking something different from the so-called Memorandum of Understanding signed by Iran and the US in mid-June. That led to a ceasefire and more maritime traffic flowing through Hormuz but collapsed within about a fortnight, before the sides made substantive progress on a permanent peace deal.

Pakistan and Qatar have been the most prominent mediators in the on-off talks.

The MOU was widely criticized among US politicians as ceding too much to Iran financially, especially in the form of sanctions relief. Iran also continued to restrict shipping in the strait and volumes remained far below pre-war levels.

The US government has told mediators it wants Iran to make firm commitments on reopening the strait this time around and to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, two of the people said.

Washington continues to have constructive discussions with Iran through mediators, but there will not be a deal unless the nuclear issues are addressed, according to one US official, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive talks. Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete progress on nuclear, the official said.

The spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that negotiators are pressing Iran to compromise on its nuclear program to revive the peace talks and placate Trump on an issue he has made a top priority.

In his address to the UN General Assembly last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country isn’t seeking to build an atomic weapon but won’t give up the right to develop nuclear technology for economic purposes.

Read More: Iran President Sends US Defiant Message Over Potential Talks

Tehran says it has made an offer to reopen the strait within seven days if Washington makes certain moves. Its leaders have previously said the US must lift a naval blockade and oil sanctions for there to be any progress on allowing more ships through the vital waterway. Trump said Saturday he had rejected the proposal.

Oil prices rose on Monday as expectations for an agreement on Hormuz faded, with Brent crude jumping 2% to around $106.20 a barrel.

The surge in energy prices since the US and Israel started the war in late February has hurt Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections, in which the Democratic Party is widely expected to make gains.