Italy’s Newest Far-Right Party Chases Its First Parliament Win

Italian ultranationalist Roberto Vannacci’s breakaway party gets its first test at the ballot box, a contest that may provide a gauge of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s coalition heading into next year’s general election.

Vannacci’s candidate for a parliamentary seat in the southern city of Reggio Calabria, Domenico Giannetta, a former regional whip in Forza Italia, is going up against Fabio Roscioli, a candidate backed by Meloni’s coalition. The center-left’s Frank Benedetto is seeking to capitalize on the fractured right.

Vannacci’s burst in national polling is just one data point in the populist right’s surge across Europe. Most recently, Germany’s Alternative for Germany won an election in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, and France’s Marine Le Pen is the frontrunner in the 2027 presidential campaign. But in Italy’s conservative stronghold of Calabria, the establishment remains positive.

“I am very confident about the outcome,” Roberto Occhiuto, the regional governor and a deputy national secretary at Forza Italia, the third-biggest party in Meloni’s government in Rome, said in an interview Thursday. “This test will show that populists can be defeated even without alliances.”

Read more: An Italian Ex-General Shakes Up Meloni’s Right-Wing Coalition

A former general, Vannacci has focused his campaign on the same themes he has espoused nationally: He’s most faithful to the right’s views on crime, sovereignty, national identity and opposition to aid to Ukraine. He has also likened his campaign to that of Germany’s rising AfD.

Reggio Calabria “will be our Saxony,” Vannacci said at a rally this month. “We’ll do better than AfD in Saxony. We’ll get more than 43%.”

His culture war rhetoric, which echoes Meloni’s messaging when she was in opposition, has made Vannacci’s movement Italy’s second-biggest political force on the right. A national poll last week put his National Future party at about 8.1%. There’s been no polling for the seat in Calabria.

Meloni has ruled out any deal with Vannacci ahead of next year’s vote. He has said any such alliance would have to respect his own “red lines” on security and migration. Though Meloni’s mandate ends in October 2027, an election could be held as soon as April, Bloomberg has reported.

The by-election was triggered by the election of Francesco Cannizzaro of Forza Italia to mayor of Reggio Calabria this year. Polls close Monday afternoon, and results are expected shortly thereafter.