Comcast Stock Hits Its Lowest Level in More Than a Decade. Why the Trouble Runs Deep.

Comcast falls after analysts at KeyBanc downgrade the stock to Underweight from Sector Weight. (Dreamstime)

Key Points

• Comcast falls after KeyBanc downgrades the stock to Underweight from Sector Weight.
• KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel projects Comcast will lose 558,000 broadband customers in 2026 and 665,000 in 2027 amid intense competition.
• The analyst expects growth at Comcast’s Universal theme parks to remain flat, while Wall Street projects a 9% rebound in 2027.

Comcast has faced serious headwinds and the trouble extends far beyond a competitive broadband market.

Shares of Comcast fell 2.2% to $21.64 in premarket trading Friday after KeyBanc analysts downgraded the stock to Underweight, the equivalent of a Sell rating, from Sector Weight with a $18 price target. Analyst Brandon Nispel said Friday that Comcast has lost subscribers faster than expected, theme parks have slowed down, and the planned move to separate from NBCUniversal won’t boost the stock.

The stock was on pace to close at its lowest level since Oct. 11, 2013, when shares hit $21.57.

The average analyst rating on Comcast is a Hold, according to the 29 analysts polled by FactSet.

Nispel noted that broadband and mobile operators have been facing intense competition from rivals offering cheap, high-speed internet for as little as $30 to $40 a month. As a result, he projects that Comcast will lose 558,000 broadband customers in 2026 and 665,000 in 2027. The analyst added that Comcast’s view that competitors’ prices are irrational but refusal to match them traps the company in a lose-lose situation.

While Wall Street expects a solid earnings rebound for Comcast’s core connectivity and platforms operations—home to its flagship Xfinity broadband, mobile, and pay-TV services—Nispel remains skeptical. Beyond ongoing subscriber losses, he said the company’s heavy investments and massive upfront restructuring costs could weigh heavily on fiscal fourth-quarter earnings.

Performance at Comcast’s Universal theme parks has dwindled, and Nispel expects growth to remain muted. Comcast attributed recent struggles to softer attendance, which has fallen sharply since June. Even hype around the new Epic Universe park in Orland hasn’t prevented a deceleration in visitors. Though Wall Street expects a 9% rebound in theme parks in 2027, Nispel projects growth to remain flat.

Nispel is cautious about the NBCUniversal spinoff, noting that Comcast might buy back stock and lose a key support mechanism for the share price. Still, he thinks the separation could pave the way for an eventual merger with rival Charter Communications. Joining forces would reduce back-office costs and reach more than 130 million homes, giving both companies massive scale against telecommunications rivals.

Rival Charter Communications stock rose 0.4% in premarket trading.

Write to Mariapaula Gonzalez at mariapaula.gonzalez@barrons.com

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