The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle

AI prices are collapsing, but the competition is not at the frontier. Anthropic held the Opus line at $5 & $25 across five releases while OpenAI cut Luna 80% then 50% again, & open models now run a majority of token volume at an 86% discount to closed models. The most capable model, Fable 5.1, commanded only 3.7% of gateway spending in its first twelve days. Demand is a normal distribution with a fat middle, & as intelligence per dollar explodes the tokens may shift to commodity. Whether that happens will determine the economics of the AI market.