Do we agree what "short timelines" means?
During a discussion on one of the various LessWrong-aligned Telegram chat groups, I noticed how vague the "short" in "short timelines" is, and ran a poll to find out what people mean when they say "short timelines".
| % | Range | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | <3 months | 0 |
| 0% | 3–6 months | 0 |
| 33% | 6–12 months | 8 |
| 33% | 1–2 years | 8 |
| 21% | 2–4 years | 5 |
| 8% | 4–8 years | 2 |
| 4% | Something more than 8 years | 1 |
Total: 24 votes
Small n, certainly. But with this broad a distribution even on a time axis that doubles with each line, I think it shows we need to be precise about "how short is short" when discussing how likely we think a "short timeline" is.
It's potentially even worse than this: in the chat group, one respondent wasn't sure which answer to give because their idea of "short timelines" would be a different time bracket for "human level AGI available on the market" vs. "AI running 50+% of knowledge economy".
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