Micron’s Growth Is Set to Slow. Why That’s Good News for the Stock.

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Micron Technology stock has risen more than 500% in the past 12 months. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Key Points

Stifel analysts say Micron Technology could see its growth pace slow soon, but supply constraints could sustain high prices and profit margins.
Micron shares rose 1.6% to $1,032.04 in Monday morning trading as investors look ahead to the company’s earnings report on Sept. 30.
Stifel analyst Brian Chin expects Micron’s quarter-over-quarter revenue growth to slow from 22% in the fiscal fourth quarter to 11% in the current quarter.

Micron Technology could see its blistering pace of growth slow soon, according to analysts at Stifel. But don’t worry—what the memory-chip maker loses in short-term growth it could make up for with sustained high prices and profit margins.

Micron shares rose 1.6% to $1,032.04 in Monday morning trading. Investors and analysts are beginning to look ahead to its fiscal fourth quarter earnings report on Sept. 30.

“While we expect Micron to report/guide upside to ours/consensus estimates…we anticipate a more measured rate-of-upside than in recent quarters,” wrote Stifel analyst Brian Chin in a research note on Monday.

What’s the problem? Largely, it’s just that Micron and its peers can’t ship memory chips quickly enough to meet demand. Stifel expects shipments of dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, to rise by 15% to 20% in 2027, down from growth in the mid-to-high 20% range this year.

Chin forecasts Micron will report revenue of $50.78 billion for the quarter, up 22% from the previous quarter. He expects that quarter-over-quarter growth to slow to 11% in the current quarter.

But while supply constraints might limit Micron’s ability to grow shipments, they could also keep prices—and profits—high. DRAM shipments would need to rise by 40% to 50% in 2027 to fill the gap between supply and demand, according to Stifel’s Chin.

“We think the stock still hasn’t gotten full credit, considering the current rate of secular memory bit growth and structural supply growth constraints, and how this is likely to translate into [a] sustained higher pricing/margin environment for the company over the coming 12-18+ months,” Chin wrote.

The Stifel analyst reiterated a $1,500 price target and a Buy rating on Micron stock.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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