OpenAI expects to burn $280bn by 2030

OpenAI projects it will burn through almost $280bn by the end of 2030, highlighting its huge long-term funding needs as the AI company pushes for a valuation of more than $1.2tn in fresh investment talks.

The company expects negative free cash flow of $278bn over five years from 2026 to 2030 as it invests aggressively to expand its access to computing power, according to a recent presentation seen by the FT.

OpenAI expects its expenses will far outrun its revenues, which are projected to grow tenfold in the same period, from $36bn this year to $350bn in 2030. In total the company anticipates booking $840bn in revenue between now and the end of 2030.

The ChatGPT maker is asking investors — many of which have already poured tens of billions of dollars into the company — to buy into its aggressive spending plans and promising that the eventual returns will justify their faith.

The $852bn AI lab recently entered talks for a major new funding round, the FT reported this week. Backers approached the company to discuss investing at a $1.2tn valuation. OpenAI is pushing for a higher valuation, according to a person close to the company.

OpenAI’s ability to meet its vast funding needs is critical to a network of financial arrangements and hardware deals the company has built up as it seeks to lock in scarce computing power. Large tech groups from chipmaker Nvidia to Oracle and SoftBank’s data centre business depend heavily on contracts with OpenAI for their future revenues.

OpenAI forecasts spending about $856bn on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, by far its largest single expense.

The massive projected cash burn testifies to the pressure on OpenAI’s business. Having raised $122bn in March, it is on track to exhaust that cash in 2028, the presentation suggests.

To support its growth, OpenAI needs to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into data centres and computing power to train and run its models. It has also slashed prices as it seeks to win business from US rival Anthropic and see off the threat from cheaper, “open-weight” models from China.

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There are signs its heavy spending may have a pay-off, with new model releases leading to an increase in OpenAI’s annualised revenue of about 20 per cent in July. The group forecast even deeper negative free cash flow of $305bn in a prior projection in May.

OpenAI had targeted an initial public offering this autumn, confidentially filing its paperwork to the Securities and Exchange Commission in June. But it has since deferred that process, citing growing public concern about the risks posed by fast-developing AI systems.

According to some investors, the delay is also motivated by fears about how the public markets might receive the heavily lossmaking company. Anthropic is expected to go public this autumn in a listing that could be the largest ever.

OpenAI declined to comment.