Bracing for El Niño Extreme

This year’s El Niño has set off wildfires in Asia, hurricanes in the Pacific and fishery closures in South America. It’s likely about to get a lot worse.

The natural climate cycle occurs every few years and lasts about a year. This year’s El Niño is on track to be the strongest in at least 70 years, with the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization warning of flooding, drought and extreme heat throughout the winter.

In an El Niño year, the mass of warm water that normally collects in the western Pacific shifts east toward South America, with ocean temperatures indicating how strong an event will be. This summer’s are among the highest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, elevating the global weather phenomenon to super status.

With the warm water shifting eastward across the Pacific, heavy tropical rains follow close behind—spurring ideal environmental conditions for hurricanes.

Increase in named cyclones in the northeastern Pacific so far this year compared with the annual average

Eastward-shifting ocean evaporation generates warm air that rises into the atmosphere and then migrates north and east, gathering speed and feeding into the subtropical jet stream. That brings more rain and storms to the southern U.S., flooding and coastal erosion to California, and severe thunderstorms to the Gulf states.

One silver lining is stifled cyclones in the North Atlantic as warm air rising off the Pacific generates high-altitude winds that blow east toward the tropical Atlantic. So far, there have been no hurricanes in the area, which typically gets more than three by this time of year.

Another upshot of El Niño: We know where disaster is likely to strike, and can prepare.

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