Bonds, AI, Crypto…It’s Make-or-Break Time for Markets

We’re back in the danger zone. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a new 19-year high above 5% early Tuesday—that should put markets on red alert.

Stock futures aren’t getting too badly hit, but the S&P 500 is on track for a sixth decline in seven days. The artificial-intelligence selloff is at least abating for some. We can thank President Donald Trump’s impromptu call to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for that.

But a bond-driven move is likely to be broader, and perhaps a more immediate problem for markets than the AI doomsday scenario. Markets are suddenly pricing in up to four quarter-point Federal Reserve hikes by June 2027, with the first expected Wednesday.

It feels like something’s got to give. Perhaps Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will end his vow of silence on guidance tomorrow?

It’s also crunch time for Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks, which were falling ahead of the Senate’s Clarity Act vote later today. Some of the market’s biggest fears will come to a head in the coming days—one way or another.

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📈 Here’s what’s happening in markets today:

• Stocks futures are falling as oil prices rally, driving the 10-year yield back above 5%.
• What Nvidia CEO Huang told Trump about the AI doom debate.
• Intel, Sandisk, Palantir, and more stocks that explain today’s market.
• Bitcoin drops ahead of Clarity Act vote. Why Cathie Wood’s dumping crypto stocks.
• A rate hike could be the first of many. Stocks are on red alert.
• Elon Musk is teasing a Tesla and SpaceX merger again.
• Micron stock rises but a strike threat looms large.

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Source: FactSetNote: futures contractsAs of Sept. 15, 8:55 a.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1S&P 500Nasdaq Dow industrialsSept. 14Sept. 15-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.2%

🤖 Microsoft will limit AI models, but speed is different

As some have called for a slowdown in AI development, Microsoft is working on a new code of conduct for how it trains and operates its AI models, putting limits on them, including not being able to fulfill requests related to weapons manufacturing or to create violent content, It didn’t explicitly say it would curb growth. Read more here.

🪙 Crypto’s Clarity Act showing signs of life ahead of vote

GOP senators have an 11th-hour push to get support from Democrats for the Clarity Act, the crypto bill facing a vote today. New text circulating the Hill included updated ethics requirements for President Donald Trump and other government officials. Trump’s own crypto investments have been a primary hang-up in efforts to move the bill forward.

🏛️ Bank stocks sell off after Bank of America CEO’s comments

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sparked a bank stock selloff by mentioning at a Barclays conference that third-quarter sales and trading revenue would be flat from last year’s robust results, while investment banking fees are likely to fall 10% from last year. Citigroup’s CFO, meanwhile, said markets results are likely to grow. Traders have seized on recent market volatility.

⚾ Investor urges Atlanta Braves to pursue a deal

Breach Inlet Capital Management wants the Atlanta Braves to pursue a sales process to capitalize on the soaring value of professional sports teams. The investors sent a letter saying the Braves stock trades at a big discount to its estimated value, which includes the baseball team and an attractive real-estate development around the Braves’ home field.

⛏️ U.S. also investing in tungsten production for military

Elmet Group, the only American-owned tungsten producer, got a $450 million investment from the Defense Department to boost tungsten production for military hardware, with the goal of reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese-dominated supply chains. It’s a similar dynamic to the race to secure American supply of rare earth materials.

💵 Making sense of the shock from a 5% Treasury yield

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit the much-discussed 5% level, something it flirted with in October 2023 but hasn’t managed to settle above since July 2007. The return of the 5% yield is worrisome for people looking to buy homes—it indicates higher mortgage rates are coming—and for those worried about rising costs to service U.S. debt.

📰 Don’t miss out on our other newsletters

• Review & Preview: AI Is At It Again
• Energy Insider: Nuclear Stocks Are Still Too Hot to Handle. How to Play It Safe.
• View From the Circle: How to Buy Retail Stocks When Every Brand Is a Sinking Ship

👁️ Oracle’s Larry Ellison canceled plan to sell company stock

Oracle co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Larry Ellison canceled a prearranged plan to sell company shares. The announcement came soon after the company said Ellison had adopted a plan to unload 50 million Oracle shares, which would amount to roughly $7.5 billion of company stock. Read more about it here.

💬 Quote of the day:

The claim that ‘AI is going to take over the World’ is a Hoax… — President Donald Trump, on the debate about the speed of AI development

Other headlines moving markets:

• The S&P 500 at 7400 or 8000: Why the future is so murky.
• GE Vernova can fall 50%, one analyst says.
• Novo Nordisk is losing some weight. It still faces challenges.
• These stocks are the big winners from the AI debate.
• A big S&P 500 pullback isn’t far-fetched.
• 3 ETFs to own and 3 to avoid.
• Why today’s GE downgrade wasn’t just a downgrade.
• Psychedelics are Wall Street’s next trip.
• Mara and Strategy pause and Bitcoin faces a new test.
• What happened with Cooper’s stock before the bad news?
• What AI concerns mean for memory chip makers like Micron.
• Get in line. Costco is rationing motor oil.
• Nvidia is still the best chip bet in an AI slowdown.
• Why Iren stock just got a double upgrade.
• Corning was the worst in the S&P 500, and it wasn’t just AI.
• Pump pain: Will gas spikes fuel inflation?
• The office boom is back. Can REITs be far behind?

I want to hear from you! If you’ve got a great story for us, get in touch! You can email me at thebarronsdaily@barrons.com

— Edited by Liz Moyer, Stacy Ozol, and Patrick O’Donnell

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