What Does Pacing Mean?
Amodei asked the industry to pace itself, but nobody defined the word. Five camps answered : interpretability wants time to understand models, labor wants time for workers, the economic camp wants growth to service the debt, the geopolitical camp wants position against China, & the regulatory capture camp wants no new rules. Each priced the consequences of a pause & none named a speed. The one mechanism that could produce a number, a training compute threshold, was tried in 2023 at 10^26 FLOPS, revoked before any model crossed it, & obsolete within weeks.
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