GE Vernova Stock Can Fall 50%, According to New Sell Rating

GE Vernova separated from GE Aerospace in 2024. Coming into Monday’s trading, GE Vernova stock was up about 46% this year. (TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• GE Vernova shares fell on broader AI regulation concerns and a new Sell rating.
• GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson initiated coverage on GE Vernova with a Sell rating and a Street-low price target of $470.
• Johnson argued that GE Vernova’s valuation is too high and projected 2027 Ebitda of $7.4 billion, below the FactSet consensus of $9.5 billion.

It’s looking to be a tough Monday for GE Vernova investors. AI concerns were hitting many stocks. On top of that, Vernova caught a new Sell rating.

Shares of the power generation technology company were down 3.9% at $920 in premarket trading, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were off 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively.

Many tech stocks fell on fears that artificial intelligence regulation was coming after recent news that hundreds of autonomous AI agents hacked AI platform Hugging Face, prompting calls from AI leaders, including Elon Musk and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, to slow AI development.

AI computing needs a lot of electricity, which has been a boon for GE Vernova’s business. Coming into Monday trading, shares were up 46% this year and up 324% over the past 24 months.

AI fears would have been enough to impact shares, but then came a new rating. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson launched coverage of GE Vernova stock with a Sell rating and a $470 price target, down about 50% from recent levels. It’s the lowest price target on the Street, according to FactSet, by more than $300.

(GLJ covered GE Vernova stock before Johnson picked up coverage, rating shares Buy. But analysts change, bringing with them new opinions.)

Johnson acknowledges that AI needs power, but doesn’t believe that justifies shares trading at 26 times estimated 2027 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. The S&P 500 trades at closer to 13 times. Johnson values Vernova at 14 times his 2027 Ebitda estimate.

What’s more, he believes 2027 Ebitda below peers, with power turbines delivered that year ordered when prices were lower. Johnson models Ebitda of $7.4 billion. The consensus number compiled by FactSet is $9.5 billion.

Johnson’s call and early stock drop come after GE Vernova shares gained 3.6% on Friday after Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith raised his price target on GE Vernova stock to $1,185 from $1,155. He was focused on service revenue from a growing installed base of power turbines.

Dumoulin-Smith and Johnson feel very differently about GE Vernova stock. Overall, shares remain popular on Wall Street, with almost 80% of analysts covering the company rating shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from 55% to 60%.

The average analyst price target for GE Vernova stock is about $1,240, higher than Dumoulin-Smith’s and far higher than Johnson’s.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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