The ECB Could Tell Markets What Fed’s Warsh Won’t

The European Central Bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt. (Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise its key interest rate to 2.5% from 2.25% on Thursday.
• The expected rate hike would mark the second time the European Central Bank has raised borrowing costs since the war in Iran began in late February.
• The conflict in the Middle East has driven up oil and natural gas prices, pushing euro zone inflation to 3.3% in August.

The European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision Thursday could do the talking for U.S. markets that has failed to come from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The Fed boss has left investors scrabbling for economic clues after spending his first summer in charge signaling he wants the central bank to do less talking, by scrapping forward guidance and favoring shorter policy statements. In that information void, the ECB’s move could give a steer on how policymakers will respond to a flare-up in inflation.

The ECB is widely expected to raise its key interest rate to 2.5% from 2.25% on Thursday. That would mark the second time Frankfurt has hiked borrowing costs since the war in Iran broke out in late February.

The conflict in the Middle East has made life tougher for the central bank because it has driven up oil and natural gas prices.

Brent international crude futures topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July on Wednesday, while Dutch TTF natural gas futures are at their highest level since January 2023.

That’s had a knock-on effect on euro-zone inflation, which climbed to 3.3% in August—its highest level in nearly three years.

Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com

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