Why Oracle Is the Next Beaten-Down Software Stock Due a Big Rally

Oracle stock is down 36% over the past year. (Dreamstime)

Key Points

• Oracle is scheduled to report its earnings on Sept. 10.
• Oracle shares have fallen 25% this year and 36% over the past 12 months, weighed down by concerns over spending and debt.
• Jefferies analysts lowered their Oracle price target to $290 from $320 but said the stock is overly beaten down with favorable risk/reward.

Software stocks are back in vogue, and the more beaten-down the better. That may bode well for Oracle when it reports earnings next week.

Salesforce , Elastic , and Okta have all enjoyed 20+% gains after earnings recently. Snowflake looks to be the next one —climbing 24% ahead of the open Thursday following its fiscal second-quarter results late Wednesday.

So could Oracle, which reports earnings on Sept.10, be next?

It’s arguably the poster child of beaten-down software names. The shares are down 25% this year and 36% lower over the past 12 months. Oracle’s spending and its debt pile are two major areas of concern that weighed down the shares.

But the stock is “near peak negative sentiment,” Jefferies analysts said in a note earlier this week, with “most bad news priced in.”

The analysts, led by Brent Thill, are optimistic despite reducing their price target to $290 from $320 in a note earlier this week. They still see the shares pretty much doubling from their $145.75 Wednesday closing price.

Despite the stock’s fall, Oracle’s fundamentals have not deteriorated, they noted. Quarterly revenue growth accelerated from 12% to 21% during the fiscal year to the end of May 2026. The company has also added $183 billion of order backlog since Sept.9 last year, compared to a total of $138 billion on that date.

Jefferies said it acknowledges the overhangs on the stock—capital spending “continuing to ramp against negative free cash flow and pressured credit ratings.”

It has racked up around $260 billion in off-balance-sheet data center commitments, which the analysts said was around three times its full-year 2027 capex.

Ultimately, though, enough may be enough when it comes to the pressure on the stock.

“We think the stock is overly beaten down and risk/reward looks favorable,” they added.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com

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