Drain on U.S. Munitions From Iran War Raises Fears Over Ability to Deter China, Russia

The U.S. has rushed so many munitions to the Middle East to fight Iran that military planners are concerned the loss of firepower is diminishing America’s ability to defend against potential threats from China and Russia, said U.S. officials.

The cuts have been so deep that the U.S. inventories in Europe of PAC-3 Patriot air defense interceptors and Atacms surface-to-surface missiles are deemed to be “beyond critical,” some of the officials said.

The U.S. and Iran have mostly halted direct attacks in recent weeks. But refilling weapons stocks moved from countries like Japan, South Korea and Germany could take years, leaving soft spots in the U.S. global military posture even as Western military officials don’t assess that full-scale attacks by China and Russia are imminent, officials said.

In addition to Patriot interceptors, other European-based weapons have been drawn down to extremely low levels, including precision-strike missiles and guided rockets, officials added. Thaad antimissile interceptors and Merops counterdrone systems have also been sent from Europe to the Middle East, further diminishing supplies on the continent.

The shrinking inventories have led the U.S. European Command to adjust its operational plans, officials said. They have also increasingly led administration officials to assess that America couldn’t fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion if it occurred in the near term, The Wall Street Journal has previously reported.

Each move of military forces and assets to the Middle East, including munitions, would have required approval by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who manages an “orders book” that directs the movement of military assets, around the world under longstanding Pentagon procedures.

The White House said the U.S. has sufficient missiles to continue fighting Iran for the foreseeable future and to meet other global threats.

“The United States Military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of President Trump’s strategic goals and beyond, and Operation Epic Fury has exposed what happens when you mess with the United States,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly. “Even still, the President has urged our defense contractors to constantly produce more made-in-America weapons, which are the best in the world,” she added.

The Associated Press reported earlier that the U.S. military in Europe was experiencing a “beyond critical” shortage of Patriot missile interceptors. A spokesman for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s military headquarters said the 32-member alliance has a sufficient supply of air defense interceptors, but he did not address the declining U.S. stocks of PAC-3s, which are the most advanced type of Patriot interceptors.

“NATO has enough air defense munitions, including Patriot missiles, to defend ourselves,” said Col. Martin O’Donnell. “And we still have enough to continue to donate to Ukraine.”

The demand on U.S. stockpiles from the war in Iran has been enormous. By mid-July, the U.S. had expended about 1,700 Patriot air defense interceptors and more than 200 Thaad antimissile interceptors in the war, officials said. U.S. Navy ships had fired another 150 Standard Missile interceptors to take out Iranian missiles and drones, the officials added.

Independent analysts have estimated similar numbers for some of these systems based on budgetary estimates.

Throughout the war, Iran has fired more than 1,500 ballistic missiles and 6,000 large drones, officials said. That number has climbed as the regime continues to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. military has taken steps to conserve its interceptor stocks. It has refrained from retaliating against Iran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. officials have debated the effectiveness of tit-for-tat strikes that drained precious munitions. Trump also decided to pause strikes on Iran in late July amid a debate over munitions levels.

Some older Tomahawk cruise missiles have been refurbished to try to augment weapons levels, according to one official.

Some lawmakers said they are particularly concerned by persistent reports of Russian hybrid attacks, including explosive drones found at an airport in Germany that U.S. officials say are likely linked to Moscow. Trump recently sent his spy chief to Moscow, following recent intelligence assessments that Russian President Vladimir Putin might test the alliance’s resolve within a few years.

Adding to the European anxieties, the Pentagon is currently conducting a review of the U.S. military posture on the continent, which could lead to further reductions in American forces there.

“Discussions about our force posture review in Europe must account for a wounded Putin lashing out,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.).

The Trump administration has declined to discuss which weapons have been shifted from Europe and Asia and how many remain in those regions. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell denied that the U.S. was facing significant munitions shortages abroad.

“Claims of U.S. munition shortages are false. When the Fake News media irresponsibly amplifies these lies, the real-world consequence is clear: our enemies are emboldened to provoke—or attack—American troops,” Parnell said.

The declining weapons stocks come as allies are experiencing delays in obtaining munitions they have purchased from the U.S. The limited stocks also are sharply limiting the West’s ability to send interceptors to Ukraine, where Russian missile attacks have recently hit population centers and killed civilians due to a shortage of air defense munitions, officials say.

The U.S. also has moved air defense units from Europe and the Pacific to the Middle East to defend against Iranian threats, extending their deployments and putting a strain on the military’s ability to respond to potential crises in the future, officials said. U.S. air defense units have destroyed thousands of Iranian projectiles throughout the war to protect military bases, energy infrastructure and population centers from missiles and drones, officials say.

Unable to force concessions from Iran with military power, Trump is reverting to economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the new focus will avoid the need to return to major combat with Iran, at least in the near term.

But Arab officials and former U.S. officials say that punishing economic sanctions could prompt Tehran to retaliate militarily against their vulnerable infrastructure. That could put the shrinking inventory of American antimissile interceptors to the test.

“Iran has agency,” said Daniel Shapiro, a former Pentagon official in the Biden administration who is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. “It certainly has the willingness to absorb enormous pain, but it also has tools to try to impose pain on us and on the global economy. And those tools are likely to involve military actions that the U.S. would almost certainly have to respond to.”