Russia plans major mobilization amid troop shortages, Ukraine says

The Kremlin is preparing for a new round of conscription, with Russia planning to mobilize an additional 600,000 people, according to the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine. Russia intends to carry out another wave of mobilizations in 2026 and 2027, recruiting 300,000 people each year. Ukrainian intelligence believes a decision could be made after the Russian State Duma elections in September. This information comes from the GUR of the Ministry of Defense and the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

According to their data, Russia's General Staff has already drawn up a plan to mobilize 600,000 more people. The primary goal is to replenish military units engaged in combat against Ukraine, as well as newly forming units. Russian personnel losses between January and July 2026 amounted to about 240,000 troops, with at least 140,000 of these classified as irrecoverable losses. During this same period, 232,000 people were contracted into the Russian occupation forces.

Preparations for the new wave of mobilization already include changes to Russian law, tighter military registration rules, and the creation of additional recruitment mechanisms in prisons and penal colonies. New enforcement measures are also being developed. Plans are in place to conscript those convicted of various crimes whose sentences have not been expunged or served, according to several articles of the Russian Criminal Code. These include crimes related to smuggling toxic, radioactive, and explosive substances, weapons, drugs, banditry, and organizing illegal migration.

Depending on their level of training, newly mobilized recruits could undergo instruction lasting from 15 to 60 days. Part of their training might take place at military sites in Belarus.

Russia is also preparing stricter enforcement measures for conscripts. These may include bans on leaving the country, obtaining loans, buying or selling real estate, revoking driver's licenses, and freezing bank accounts.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian authorities see the new mobilization as necessary due to a decrease in people willing to sign military contracts. In some regions, the number of potential contract soldiers has fallen by 30–40%, and attempts to recruit students have not produced the desired results. A decision on mobilization is most likely to be made by the Russian leadership after the State Duma elections scheduled for September 18–20, 2026.

In June 2026, Russia saw a record number of online searches related to leaving the country, with citizens especially looking for information about visa-free destinations and the timing for getting a foreign passport.