Apple to Ship 10 Million Foldable iPhones in Year One, IDC Says

Apple Inc.’s anticipated foldable iPhone will rescue that segment of the smartphone market from decline and deliver more than 10 million shipments in its first year, researcher IDC predicts.

The premium-tier phone expected to debut in September will be Apple’s first foldable device and is widely seen as likely to spark a revival for a category pioneered by Samsung Electronics Co. seven years ago. IDC sees the handset launching with a lofty price but still finding willing buyers.

“I expect the passport-style Apple foldable to be widely successful despite the high $2,500 price tag,” said IDC senior research director Nabila Popal. “A very elite set of consumers are being targeted here, who will be lining up to buy the device.”

Foldable devices, which typically are about the size of a smartphone and open up like a book to convert into a tablet, have long remained a niche segment. Popal sees Apple infusing new momentum and helping avert a double-digit percentage decline for foldables this year. The category will grow 12.6% this year and accelerate to an 18% increase next year. The iPhone maker will eventually account for 40% of all foldable shipments in 2027, IDC predicts.

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While a fraction of the 1 billion-plus unit smartphone market, foldables represent a lucrative opportunity for manufacturers because of their premium price. The broader smartphone market is now expected to decline by a record 16.7% this year, IDC said, revising its forecast to a steeper fall than previously estimated. Rising prices for memory chips and other parts are constraining production and pushing up prices.

“The components that make AI possible are the same ones in short supply, and their cost is being passed straight through to the shelf,” IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo said. “The era of the cheap smartphone has ended.”

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