Launch date for London robotaxis slips amid TfL uncertainty

London’s robotaxi rollout is running behind the ambitious schedule set out by the UK government, with the three main operators now unlikely to launch a fully driverless commercial service this year.

Alphabet’s Waymo, Uber-backed Wayve and China’s Baidu still face regulatory or technical barriers, or both, before they can take paid passengers without a “safety driver” behind the wheel.

Any delay in London will come as a relief to cab drivers worried about potential job losses, but it could dismay the 100,000 people who have signed up to try Uber and Wayve’s service.

Ministers, investors and tech executives had also hoped that the launch of robotaxis could help to position the UK as an innovation hub. The vehicles are now available to hire in more than 20 cities across the US, China and the Middle East.

This month Zagreb became the first European city to offer autonomous rides to the general public, but the service, available through Uber, still has a human driver behind the wheel for “onboard monitoring”. Waymo announced on Tuesday that it plans to launch in Munich next year.

Waymo, Uber and Wayve said last year that they hoped to start taking paying customers in London in fully driverless cabs “as soon as” 2026, although they did not commit to a firm deadline given pending regulatory requirements.

That came after the transport secretary Heidi Alexander accelerated the timetable for robotaxis, which she said would offer greater freedom to elderly and disabled people, boost road safety and create thousands of jobs.

However, progress has slowed significantly in recent months, while the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has hinted at a less enthusiastic stance towards technology companies.

Transport for London, the city authority which must give its consent to any rollout, is yet to even publish the guidance that companies must follow to win its approval.

“At the start of the year, there was clear pressure from the top of government to have a car without a driver moving around the middle of London,” said Jack Stilgoe, tech professor at University College London.

“It’s not clear whether Andy Burnham shares that enthusiasm. TfL are still asking what problems this would actually solve. And it’s not clear where the final decision will be made.”

Rise of the robotaxis

This is the third and final part of a series on the expected launch of autonomous taxis in London.
Part I: London’s cabbies prepare to battle the robotaxis
Part II: Will robotaxis clog up Britain’s cities?

TfL’s delay in producing its guidance has frustrated some prospective robotaxi operators. “The ball is in their court,” said one.

A person close to TfL said that its guidelines would be released “as soon as possible”.

But last month Christina Calderato, TfL’s director of strategy, told the London Assembly’s transport committee that the transit authority would not be in a position to start accepting applications “for some time”.

“I do not think we are in a rush to get [the guidelines] out,” she said. “There is a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes.”

Many in the autonomous vehicles industry argue that Waymo will take an early lead in London’s robotaxi market. The company, which raised $16bn in February and operates in 11 US cities, is testing about 100 vehicles in the city.

“I think Waymo will be the leading player in London,” said Igal Raichelgauz, chief executive of Israeli start-up Autobrains, which develops autonomous driving technology.

“By the end of next year, I think we will see hundreds, if not high hundreds, of Waymo vehicles circling around London. I think other players will be a bit behind.”

Ben Loewenstein, Waymo’s head of policy and government affairs for the UK and Europe, told the FT that the Silicon Valley-based company was currently “working through the safety approval process” with the transport department and “waiting for TfL’s guidance on how to earn their consent”.

“We’re working towards a fully autonomous service by the end of this year,” Loewenstein said.

However, he would not say whether Waymo would be able to offer paid rides to the general public in that timeframe. In some US markets, Waymo has offered rides to a limited number of vetted customers or employees before opening up to the public.

Uber and Wayve will soon launch a small-scale commercial pilot that, as in Zagreb, will leave a driver in place behind the wheel of an autonomous car.

Alex Kendall, Wayve’s chief executive, called it a “big step forward for the UK”.

Their initial fleet of just 15 customised Ford cars has been approved under TfL’s conventional private hire vehicle licences, not the new automated vehicle rules.

For its fully driverless launch, Wayve plans to switch to a new Nissan Leaf vehicle that is still in production and is due to launch later this year.

“We have never claimed we would have a fully driverless operation this year,” Kendall said. “I don’t want to put a timeline on it because I want to make sure we pass through [the regulatory process]. This work is continuing at pace.”

Kendall said the advantage of using the Nissan as its first true robotaxi was that all the necessary sensors are built into the production vehicle rather than “retrofitted” like the cars currently used by Wayve, Waymo and Baidu in London.

“London is a significant step up in complexity compared to Phoenix or San Francisco,” he said.

Baidu is furthest behind of the three initial operators targeting London. Its vehicles only began testing in London at the end of July, several months after Waymo. It said it planned to launch public rides next year. The Chinese company did not respond to requests for comment.

“I’m not worried about the timeline in the sense that it’s still early days,” said Jeremy Bird, executive vice-president of global growth at Lyft, one of Baidu’s London launch partners alongside Uber.

“It’s such a big city, it’s a complicated city in terms of driving. So I think it will be a real test case for the industry,” he added.

Companies must obtain approval for their vehicles and to operate an automated passenger service from the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency, part of the transport department, before going to TfL for consent.

So far, no vehicles have been approved by the DVSA.

Once TfL publishes its guidance and receives an application, it has six weeks to respond.

Many Londoners are yet to be convinced that robotaxis will be a welcome addition to their city.

In a YouGov poll in July, 42 per cent of Londoners opposed autonomous passenger vehicles in the capital, with only 29 per cent supporting the technology. Worries about road safety, unproven technology and job losses were among the biggest concerns cited.

The transport department said: “Safety is our priority and we’re putting in place a world-leading regulatory framework to ensure self-driving vehicles are safely introduced from 2027.

“These services will be introduced carefully, subject to rigorous safety testing and regulatory approval, and will require local consent which can consider the potential impacts on local roads, jobs and communities.”