Icelanders' weekend plans could make or break EU enlargement

This Saturday, Icelanders will vote in a referendum on whether or not to reopen membership negotiations with the EU. Iceland and the EU have had a long-standing situationship. The last time they tried to take their relationship to the next level over a decade ago, negotiations came to a halt over fishing rights. Iceland's then-eurosceptic government ended the negotiations in 2015 over disagreements surrounding the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, which would require Iceland to open its fishing grounds to other EU members. The fishing industry makes up roughly 40% of the country's export value, so Icelanders have been wary of allowing EU vessels access to their waters and cheaper EU imports to undermine their own production. In 2024, however, Icelanders elected a pro-EU government, and Brussels has turned on the charm. The EU commissioner for fishing, Costas Kadis, told the Financial Times that the EU is open to solutions and will discuss exemptions regarding fish stocks and sharing arrangements. Eiríkur Bergmann, professor of politics at Bifröst University in Iceland, told The European Correspondent that this new tone is in line with the EU's demand for an enlargement “success case” after long and complicated negotiations with other membership candidates like Montenegro (whose talks have been ongoing for 14 years). “We have been participating in the European Union for a long time through the European Economic Area (EEA). For Iceland to enter now would be relatively easy for both parties,” Bergmann said. Icelandic fish exports, for example, are already traded largely tariff-free under existing agreements. Iceland has the fifth highest GDP per capita in the world, of which 8% is generated by its fishing industry, which accounts for approximately 2% of the global catch of wild fish. This makes Iceland an attractive addition for the bloc. Another reason that the EU is playing nice, according to Bergmann, is defence and security. Given Iceland's strategic geographical position close to the Arctic and Russia, the EU sees an advantage in bringing its territory into the bloc. As a founding member of NATO, Iceland is in limbo. It's the only alliance member without a standing army, relying fully on US protection guaranteed by a bilateral agreement from 1951. But with Donald Trump threatening to take over Greenland – Iceland's neighbour – and increasing Russian military activity in the Arctic, the island is faced with more vulnerabilities and has looked back towards the EU. Polls show a very tight race: A Gallup poll from earlier in August has Icelanders divided, at 46% in favour versus 46% against reopening EU negotiations, with 8% undecided. If Icelanders do vote “yes” in Saturday's referendum, their country will restart EU membership negotiations. Formally joining the EU, however, would require another referendum. A ”no” vote would be a considerable setback to EU enlargement, likely to make officials in both Brussels and Reykjavík sweat. “I have always said that joining the EU is not much of a calculation. At this point it is more of an existential question,” Bergmann said. A previous version of this article was first published on 9 June 2026. This version has been updated by Toyah Höher.