How Nvidia Stock Could Get a Surprise China Boost

Nvidia shares have risen 25% in the past 12 months. (An Rong Xu/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Nvidia shares rose on Wednesday following reports that the company was allowed to ship more chips to Chinese customers.
• Beijing authorities reportedly allowed ByteDance and Tencent to each receive about 10,000 of Nvidia’s H200 processors in recent weeks.
• Nvidia has agreed to pass on a 25% cut of any such sales to the U.S. government.

Nvidia stock was edging up early on Wednesday. The chip maker has reportedly been allowed to ship more chips to Chinese customers as Wall Street looks ahead to its earnings.

Nvidia shares were up 0.1% in early trading. That comes after a 2.3% drop the previous day amid a wider slump for the semiconductor sector.

The main focus of investors is Nvidia’s earnings on Aug. 26. Citi analyst Atif Malik reiterated a $300 target price and a Buy rating on the stock in his preview of the figures, arguing Nvidia is likely to deliver sales ahead of market expectations.

“We believe Nvidia has secured HBM [high-bandwidth memory] supply for 2026/27 which should help Street estimates to move higher. Beyond memory, we believe Nvidia is focused on the next resource bottleneck of LPS (land, power, and shell) to help expand AI factories,” Malik wrote in a research note.

An unexpected boost could come if Nvidia reports significant revenue from China. Authorities in Beijing have allowed domestic companies ByteDance and Tencent to receive around 10,000 of Nvidia’s H200 processors each in recent weeks, and other Chinese companies could get approval for similar shipments, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Chinese companies would be willing to buy around 1.5 million of the H200 chips, representing roughly $30 billion in revenue, according to KeyBanc analyst John Vinh. Nvidia has agreed to pass on a 25% cut of any sales to the U.S. government.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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