Nebius's Revenue Is Forecast to Roughly Quadruple Year Over Year. Here's Why Analysts Are Still Debating Whether That's Enough to Justify the Stock.

If you've been following the stock market this year or the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, you had to have heard of Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) by now. The stock is on an absolute tear, up more than 200% this year. The stock jumped almost 50% last week alone.

Nebius' revenue is on track to roughly quadruple this year, but the stock still sits in a gray zone where some investors see a future AI infrastructure giant and others see a capital-hungry niche player priced for perfection. The debate comes down to what Nebius is actually building, how durable that revenue is, and whether the current valuation already assumes most of the upside.

Nebius' growth is coming in huge steps. In Q1 2026, revenue hit $399 million, up 684% versus about $51 million a year earlier, and up 75% from Q4. Its AI cloud unit produced $389.7 million in Q1, an 841% year-over-year increase, and by Q2, total revenue reached $582.3 million as AI cloud sales rose nearly sixfold, beating analyst expectations. Management projects $3 billion to $3.4 billion of revenue this year, which would be roughly quadruple 2025 revenue and put Nebius into midtier hyperscaler territory based on the top line alone.

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