Amazon’s Stock Could Hit $500 by End of 2027. Why AWS Revenue Is the Key.

Amazon stock has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.06 times, slightly more expensive than the S&P 500’s 20.24 times as of Friday’s closing bell. (JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak says Amazon stock could reach $500 a share by the end of 2027, driven by revenue growth at Amazon Web Services.
• The $500 bull case relies on AWS growing its annualized revenue from the current $170 billion to around $1 trillion by the middle of the next decade.
• To reach this target, Amazon must monetize its artificial-intelligence computing capacity as it expands capacity by about 8 gigawatts annually.

Amazon.com stock could be worth $500 a share by the end of 2027. The reason is straightforward: revenue growth at Amazon Web Services.

Amazon stock rose 1.3% to $265.96 in premarket trading on Monday after ending Friday down 0.9%. Shares have risen about 14% this year and 15% over the past 12 months.

Amazon stock has declined 7.5% below its record closing high of $284.02 from Aug. 3.

But the stock soon could nearly double if the company successfully grows its AWS revenue to around $1 trillion in the next 10 years, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak.

Nowak late Sunday wrote that AWS’s path to $1 trillion in revenue by the middle of the next decade “paints a path” toward $500 billion of company-wide earnings before interest and taxes, or Ebit, and a $500 share price by the end of 2027.

The analyst added that his base case is for $335 a share, or 28% upside from the closing price on Friday. Nowak added, however, that the bull case of $500 is “increasingly in play if AWS delivers like we think it could.”

For AWS to hit $1 trillion, it would need to grow about 490% from the current $170 billion in annualized revenue, according to Morgan Stanley.

“As long as innovation and demand for GenAI tools continue to scale, we still believe each hyperscaler’s ability to bring on compute capacity is the key factor driving forward revenue growth,” Nowak wrote.

The firm estimated that Amazon has been expanding computing capacity by about 8 gigawatts this year and the same in 2027. Nowak wrote that Amazon’s ability to monetize its artificial-intelligence computing capacity is how AWS can hit $1 trillion in revenue.

Amazon recently raised its 2026 AI spending forecast to $220 billion from $200 billion. The company also already has raised prices on AI server rentals twice this year.

“Monetization rates will come down to supply and demand and compute pricing, which is driven by product innovation,” Nowak wrote.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that AWS currently has been monetizing at $8 per “incremental watt” but the firm wrote AWS could monetize at $12 per incremental watt. If that pricing is possible, AWS revenue would hit $1 trillion in 2035, according to Nowak.

This all would all point AWS toward $1 trillion in revenue and about $300 billion in Ebit between 2034 and 2036.

AWS is the driver for Amazon’s business growth and the stock. While a price of $500 a share seems lofty, in the AI trade market, anything is possible.

Write to Kit Norton at kit.norton@barrons.com

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