What would happen if Europe stopped importing its energy?

The European Union buys around 97% of its crude oil and nearly 88% of its natural gas from abroad, making it particularly vulnerable to price spikes and supply disruptions. Petroleum makes up 38% of the EU's energy mix, and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) represents 21% of the bloc's energy consumption. Last year, the EU's largest oil imports came from the US, Norway, and Kazakhstan. Amidst ongoing sanctions against Russia and a new EU-US trade deal, the US topped Russia in natural gas deliveries supplying 56% of total EU imports, essentially replacing one dependency with another. However, EU energy product imports are decreasing overall. At the same time, electricity generated by wind and solar (30%) overtook that generated by fossil fuels (29%) for the first time in 2025. “We see a lot of spending going into defence and security. We need to think of energy security as being part of that. We need to strengthen the energy infrastructure so that it can withstand sabotage, is less vulnerable to attack by Russian hostile power, but also to climate related disasters,” Heather Grabbe, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-tank, told The European Correspondent. So what would happen if the EU were to be completely cut off from external supply? How long would EU supplies last, and where would resources come from? Tapping into the national oil & gas reserves “Europe has some emergency mechanisms in place, but not a single magic switch for a simultaneous oil-and-gas cut-off: oil stocks are mandatory, while gas relies on storage targets, national emergency plans, and solidarity rules,” said Isaac Levi, an energy analyst and policy officer at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Energy solidarity rules include the loosening of trade restrictions and could even involve mandatory sharing of resources in times of crisis. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, EU member states have started replenishing the bloc's gas reserves. The largest are located in Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Austria. These countries host two thirds of the EU’s total capacity, the rest being spread out across national gas storage facilities in other member states. Member states are required to fill at least 80% of their overall energy storage capacity before winter. This year, Europe is heading towards its lowest gas stocks in 15 years. EU members are also required to have enough oil stored to cover at least 90 days of their average daily net import, or 61 days of their average daily consumption, depending on which is highest. France, Germany, Italy, and Spain detain the highest oil reserves. With 88% of European transport depending on imported fuel, and 30% of households needing gas from outside the EU for heating, “a sudden stop to fossil fuel imports would expose Europe's remaining dependence on oil and gas, with consumers likely facing disruptions,” Levi added. “European governments import €400 billion in fossil fuels every year. We spend around €100 billion on fossil fuel subsidies,” said Grabbe. Meanwhile, renewable energy provided 48% of the EU's power in 2025, and overall energy demand has been in decline since 2022. Europe is closing down its own fossil fuel production, but hasn’t sufficiently replaced it with other local power sources, and imports are therefore still very necessary. “Europe is still managing fossil-fuel risk rather than eliminating it fast enough; real energy security means accelerating clean power, grids, storage, and efficiency so the next crisis does not find us dependent [on oil and gas] again. Every year we delay the clean energy transition, Europe pays the price. In 2025, we spent more on importing fossil fuels than investing in clean energy – around €880 per EU citizen,” Levi told TEC. On the path to self-sufficiency Renewable energy cannot be “stockpiled” in the same way gas or oil can be, so researchers are exploring “coordinated cross-border strategic reserves” to compensate for energy transition uncertainty. “Europe should not replace dependence on imported fossil fuels with dependence on imported clean energy technologies. The EU needs to invest much more in its own renewable energy generation,” Levi said. Maximising electrification in EU energy systems could halve fossil fuel import dependency by 2040 according to EMBER, a think-tank focused on the energy transition. The European Commission is aiming for Europe's electricity to come almost entirely from clean, homegrown energy sources by 2040. Today, 70% of electricity in the EU is produced from clean, local sources. “The 2026 energy crisis showed that countries generating more of their electricity from renewables were better protected from fossil fuel price spikes, with the five cleanest power systems expected to save consumers €8.5 billion, 58% more than the five most fossil fuel-dependent countries,” Levi explained.