Why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years

I want to experiment with very quick blog post where I time-box writing for 2 hours. I won’t be able to nail down a lot of important sub-questions, but the alternative is just not making any progress on a lot of different topics I’m curious about.

Today I want to talk about the compute situation of the labs over the coming years.

Anthropic revenue has 10xed year over year. Anthropic likely ends the year with ~$100–150B of revenue. For this trend to continue, Anthropic would have to make $1T in revenue by the end of next year. There’s no deep reason why the trend needs to continue, and it very well might not - it’s ultimately a question about AI capabilities. But suppose it does. What would have to be true about that world?

Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while…