Predictions on the Future of Netflix (and Other Huge Platforms)

A few days ago, I offered some comments on the crisis at Netflix —describing it as a sign that manipulative “audience capture” strategies in business have stopped working.

I typically put these in-depth culture briefings behind a paywall, but at the last moment I decided to make this one available to all. And I was rewarded when it went viral with a vengeance. Within a few hours, my “audience capture” critique racked up more than five thousand likes and five hundred shares on Substack alone—but it also took off on other platforms.

This brought in many new subscribers. I welcome them aboard, and hope they become active members of our community.

I was especially gratified to get a nod from legendary investor Michael Burry (celebrated in the hit film The Big Short for his anticipation of the 2008 mortgage meltdown). His boost brought an entirely different audience to my Substack, which is mostly about culture and not finance. Even so, there’s a heavy dose of futurism and prognostication at The Honest Broker, so I hope these newcomers will find something of value here.

Even so, this viral article left many important questions unresolved. The biggest one is: What happens next?

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Today I’m offering more detailed predictions. These will tell you not only what these companies should do, but what they must do if they want to avoid stagnation and declining market share.

Of course, that’s no guarantee they will take my advice. In fact, if you just judged matters by the current media and web landscape, you might think there’s no chance they will abandon audience capture. But if they continue down the current path, they will pay a high price for their stubbornness.

First, let me define what I mean by “audience capture”—because some people use this same term differently, and I want to make sure we’re on the same page.

Audience capture strategies focus on locking up a…