Investing - Theory, News & General • Re: Returns: what do you ACTUALLY expect

Vanguard have published their june 30 2026 capital markets model forecast:

Key changes since March 31, 2026:

U.S. equities: Valuations increased from already elevated levels. As a result, our 10-year expected annualized return for U.S. equities declined from a range of 4.9%–6.9% to a range of 4.2%–6.2%, with similar declines across large-cap and small-cap stocks. Value stocks continue to offer the most attractive expected return profile within U.S. equities.

International equities: Markets became more expensive as a rally following a Middle East ceasefire agreement broadened globally. Consequently, expected returns declined across most international markets. Expected returns for developed markets ex-U.S. fell from a range of 5.4%–7.4% to a range of 4.5%-6.5%, while emerging markets expected returns fell from a range of 3.6%–5.6% to a range of 2%–4%.

Worth reading the whole thing & checking it against your assumptions & plan.

Interestingly, they offer both 10 & 30 year forecasts with percentage scenarios. E.g. their annualised 30 year US stock market forecast ranges from 0.0% (5th percentile scenario) to 11.7% (95th percentile scenario). Their numbers are all nominal annualised returns - e.g. a 0% nominal return for 30 years, assuming 2.5% annual inflation, causes the real value of the asset to halve, while a nominal 11.7% return for 30 years results in a 14x real return. Statistics: Posted bypseudoiterative — Thu Jul 23, 2026 9:31 pm