Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue to Top Crypto, Analysts Say

Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc.’s revenue from prediction market is set to overshadow that from cryptocurrency trading, starting as soon as the second quarter, analysts at Bernstein and Piper Sandler said this week.

The three months ending in June could mark the first quarter in which “prediction markets surpass crypto as a revenue line,” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients on Monday. Chhugani, who has the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock, raised his price target on Robinhood to a Street-high $160 from $130, to reflect the new market opportunities.

Separately, Piper Sandler & Co. analyst Patrick Moley says his model reflects a similar view, with prediction market revenue outpacing crypto in the second quarter, as well as the remaining two quarters of the year.

Analysts over the past few months highlighted a shift toward prediction markets on exchanges like Robinhood, Coinbase Global Inc. and Gemini Space Station Inc. alongside a decline in crypto trading. That drop in crypto trades comes as Bitcoin’s price extended its slump to levels last seen in 2024. Meanwhile, the soccer World Cup has acted as a major catalyst that boosted investors’ interest in prediction markets.Robinhood-Backed Prediction Market Bets Surge on World Cup Winklevoss Twins Sued Over Gemini Prediction Market Pivot Exchanges Target Retail Through Prediction Markets

Now that the World Cup is over, “it would be natural to expect a small market reversal,” however, the market may be “missing a generational platform shift in trading markets,” Bernstein’s Chhugani said. He expects Robinhood to grow its prediction market revenue to $1.7 billion by 2028, up 64% from 2026, as it expands its Rothera exchange — one of the latest entrants to the world of prediction markets that started taking bets in May.

The Bernstein analyst models new asset classes, including prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain, to contribute 18% of the firm’s estimated 2027 revenue, and 23% of its 2028 revenue.

Needham analyst John Todaro raised his price target on Robinhood to $123 from $97 on Tuesday, saying the company was showing continued strength in nearly every metric, with the latest monthly data displaying an acceleration in equities, options and event contracts, and a rebound in crypto activity. Todaro has a buy rating on the stock.

Robinhood is due to report second-quarter results on July 29, and analysts estimate the company’s adjusted profit will rise about 4% from a year earlier on a 28% jump in revenue, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Shares of the company climbed as much as 9% on Tuesday, but are still down more than 6% for the year. Coinbase is down about 22% over the same period, and Gemini has plunged 53%.