Survey Statistics: quantifying uncertainty in ranked choice voting polls

🫧 Open on Bubbles We’ve talked about uncertainty in polls (see Margin of Error , Total Margin of Error , Total Margin of Error II ) and we’ve talked about ranked data (see exploded logit ! ). A new paper, Rosenman & Liang 2026 , looks at uncertainty in ranked choice voting (RCV) polls. Recall the multinomial logit model that Train (2009) Chapter 7 calls the exploded logit : P[ranking Other then Left then Right] = exp(f_Other) / sum_c’ exp(f_c’) * exp(f_Left) / (exp(f_Left) + exp(f_Right)) Without covariates